Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Fake Vapormax Plus Cheap . The 49ers, 6-2 and riding a five-game winning streak following the bye week, also waived cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and activated cornerback Eric Wright from the reserve/non-football injury list. Manningham made 42 receptions for 449 yards and one touchdown in 12 games and 10 starts last season before injuring his left knee in a loss at Seattle Dec. Cheap Air Max 95 China .Y. - Peyton Manning made his fifth MVP award a family affair. http://www.fakeyeezyscheap.com/wholesale-yeezy-boost-350.html . 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Cheap Vapormax China .Y. -- Mike Zigomaniss goal at 5:53 of the third period stood up as the winner as the Rochester Americans hung on to defeat the visiting Hamilton Bulldogs 3-2 on Saturday in American Hockey League action.LOS ANGELES, Calif. - Magic Johnson wants the Los Angeles Lakers to lose every game this season for their own good.Coach Byron Scott thinks theyre better off learning how to win, and thats just what they did several hours after Magics latest pointed comments.Johnson discussed the struggling Lakers on Tuesday at a promotional appearance in New York, and the Hall of Famer dished out some blunt thoughts on the 16-time champion franchises future.I hope the Lakers lose every game, the former Lakers point guard said. Because if youre going to lose, lose. And Im serious. If youre going to lose, youve got to lose, because you cant be in the middle of the pack. You either have to be great, or youve got to be bad to get a good pick.A few hours later, Scott responded to his former Lakers backcourt mate by stressing the importance of establishing a winning climate surrounding Kobe Bryant. Scott says tanking wouldnt be entertained by the Lakers, whose 6-16 record is tied for the second-worst in the Western Conference.Thats easy to say, but when youre behind the scenes and youre in the trenches and youre coaching, thats not something that you want to do, Scott said. Weve got to go out here and win every game possible. I mean, if you lose games, thats one thing. But to go out and try to lose, thats a different story. I think that sends a message to those guys in there that its going back to that losing mentality. We dont we want to create that here.Bryant scored 32 points in the Lakers 98-95 win over Sacramento on Tuesday night, snapping a three-game skid. Kobe also wants no part of Magics plan.Hes used to being an owner, Bryant said with a laugh. Hes the owner of the Dodgers. He was an owner of the Lakerrs.dddddddddddd Thats speaking from an owners perspective. ... I think the fans — hopefully some of them — are smart enough to understand his perspective as an owner. I certainly am. Magic is one of the most competitive players of all-time. He doesnt want to lose. From where Im sitting, I just look at his point of view.Scott also laughed off the extemporaneous comments by Johnson, his good friend. Johnson was viciously critical of former Lakers coach Mike DAntoni in the previous two seasons, but has pledged to be supportive to Scott and the current team.Under DAntoni, the Lakers finished last season 27-55 — the most losses in franchise history and their worst winning percentage in more than a half-century.While longing for losses, Johnson also expressed optimism about the Lakers salary cap space next summer and their long-term future. He also knows another top draft pick could help: The Lakers chose Julius Randle with the seventh overall pick last year, but the teenager broke his leg on opening night and was lost for the season.The Lakers are in a good space, too (for) next summer if they can sign or trade for a talented guy, Johnson said. So Id rather be all the way bad than be in the middle like we were for a couple of those years we were getting the eighth, 10th, 12th pick. You cant get better by doing that.Scott would rather return the Lakers to success the old-fashioned way.If you go out here and play hard, youll hopefully get rewarded in the right way, Scott said. You can get the type of player that you want, that can come in here and help you the next year in the draft, and free agent-wise. But the last thing on my mind is losing games right now. At least on purpose. ' ' '